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Alexander Voloshin, Head of the Presidential Administration, has
decided to prevent President Vladimir Putin
from dismissing the Cabinet on his own. For this purpose, he has
launched a campaign for a vote of no-confidence
in the Cabinet.
When Putin came to the Kremlin, the reign of Tsar Boris the
Terrible seemed to be over. The new Duma has
not troubled the Cabinet for over a year. Even the Communists have
become emollient, forgetting their slogans
about the "anti-people regime". The new president appeals to the
Communists with his imperial intentions. The
Communists also didn't find the Cabinet formed by Putin unacceptable
until recently, as it doesn’t include Anatoli
Chubais and other figures so passionately hated by the Communists.
Besides, the Duma deputies are glad that the
new president has eliminated regional leaders from federal politics, and
even commissioned his devoted servants to
watch over them.
Not only have the been silent. Even Grigory Yavlinsky, who had
always been in opposition, has ceased
criticising the Cabinet on TV.
The Kremlin itself has now disturbed the peace. According to our
sources, Kremlin officials asked Gennady
Zyuganov to remember the good old days and move a vote of no confidence
in the Cabinet.
Oddly enough, the pro-presidential Duma faction Unity has
supported the Communists' initiative. Franz
Klintsevich, Deputy Chairman of the faction openly announced that
although he supports the Cabinet, he is ready
to set a trap for the Communists. If the Duma passes a vote of no
confidence in the Cabinet, the president is
likely to dissolve the Duma. According to the Kremlin's calculations, in
the new Duma there will be even more
members of Unity and far fewer Communists.
Most of our Kremlin sources say that Klintsevich has made this
announcement, not because he hates the
Communists so much, but after speaking with a deputy director of the
Presidential Administration. Obviously, the
source of this idea is Voloshin.
According to our source in the Cabinet, Voloshin's project has
several aims. First of all, the Kremlin wants to
intimidate Fatherland-All Russia, as it voted against the government's
bill to privatise large enterprises without the
Duma's approval. However, Vladimir Lysenko, a member of the Russian
Regions faction, notes, "The Kremlin is not
seeking revenge on Fatherland- All Russia. It is tempted to seize the
whole Duma, if not at the expense of the
Communists, then at the expense of Fatherland-All Russia, the Union of
the Right-Wing Forces (SPS), Yabloko,
and independent deputies. If Putin wants to launch major reforms, i.e.
social reforms implying the cancellation of some
social benefits, the present Duma will not allow him to do this. It is
only possible to redistribute the forces in the
Duma now, as the President's approval rating will gradually decline. It
is better for the Kremlin to hold a
parliamentary election this year, as in two and a half years the
situation in Russia will considerably worsen and the
Duma may end up with even more Communists. The Kremlin will not want
this to happen on the eve of the
presidential elections in 2004.
Paradoxically enough, another aim of this campaign is to
consolidate the position of Kasyanov’s Cabinet.
According to our sources in the Cabinet, the unexpected joint uprising
by the Communists and Unity, the pro-Putin
faction, is aimed at preventing Putin from dismissing the Cabinet.
According to rumours, Putin is now dissatisfied
with the Cabinet's slow progress and doesn't consider it sufficiently
controllable. Now the president's probable
"technical" initiative seems to be blocked by the "political" initiative
of the Duma. Putin is unlikely to dismiss the
Cabinet under pressure from the Duma.
The "technical reforms" of the Cabinet are supported by the group
of "St. Petersburg reformers" from the
ex-Administration of Anatoli Sobchak, including Deputy Prime Minister
and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and
Economy Minister German Gref, and by the group of "St. Petersburg
special service agents," including Security
Council Secretary Sergei Ivanov and presidential envoy for the Central
Federal District Georgi Poltavchenko. The
former group is close to Anatoli Chubais and wants Sergei Stepashin to
be appointed Prime Minister. The latter
insists on the candidacy of Sergei Ivanov.
The pressure exerted by these politicians on the President has
annoyed Voloshin, who is still protecting
members of the old Kremlin "family," such as Kasyanov. Voloshin has
launched the current intrigue in the Duma, to
cool the St. Petersburg hot heads.
As a professional gambler, Voloshin has also marked the cards. For
instance, having exacerbated the Cabinet
situation, he will make Kasyanov more dependent on him (according to
some rumours, Voloshin's influence over
Kasyanov has started to wane). Besides, Voloshin will be of no use if
there are no political intrigues in the
administrative authorities of the Russian Federation.
It is also necessary to pay attention to the financial aspects of
the current intrigue. Any election requires a
great deal of money, especially a parliamentary election. As a result of
the favourable situation on the world oil
market, there is a considerable amount of money in Russia. Elections
provide a good reason for extorting money
from oil barons. This is a convincing argument for the Kremlin's
political consultant Gleb Pavlovsky, who is likely to
develop new campaign strategies.
See also:
Putin Faces Cabinet Upheaval
St Petersburg Times, #650, Tuesday, March 6, 2001
The Political Council of the Union of Right-Wing Forces and
Yabloko to determine position on a vote of no confidence in
the Cabinet over the next week
Press-release, March 5, 2001
Declaration on attitude to the Government of Mikhail Kasyanov
The Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, The State Duma of the Russian Federation, The Yabloko faction,
February 20, 2001
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