Deputy Speaker of the State Duma, Vladimir
Lukin (Yabloko faction) believes
that in September participants of the Palestinian - Israeli
talks may sign a
framework agreement on an interim stage to the resolution
of the conflict.
In an interview with journalists on August
3, 2000, Lukin noted
that:"Intensive back stage negotiations are currently
being carried out to
ensure that some kind of agreement is signed in September."
According to
Vladimir Lukin, the abortive July talks at Camp David were
"poorly
prepared".
Lukin also thinks that "there was more
of a desire to conduct the talks than
actually prepare for them". Lukin commented that the
situation was still not
ripe for a final resolution of the problem in the Middle
East: "That is why
it proved impossible to secure a breakthrough, that is why
it did not work,
despite the desire of President Clinton, whose Administration
facilitated
the organisation and holding of the talks."
According to Lukin, these actions of the
US administration represented an
attempt to "compensate in some way for their failure
to resolve the problem
of establishing a national anti-missile defence system."
In his opinion
intensification of the negotiating process has also become
"a factor of the
election campaign in the USA, where the question is essentially
put in the
following way: what will accompany the democrats at the
elections - a
brilliant victory over a permanent crisis or yet another
failure to be added
to a long list of failures?"
In addition Lukin noted that "the political
fate of Ehud Barak (Israel’s
Prime Minister), whose government has virtually collapsed,
is at stake".
Speaking about the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, Lukin
expressed his
view that the former "has been gaining points owing
to his firm position" at
negotiations. Lukin added: "However, if Arafat refuses
to compromise on
Eastern Jerusalem - and this is the main problem today -
his political
prospects are also doubtful."
Lukin added that in view of all these aspects
to the problem, it could be
inferred that "the chances of a real solution to the
problem in September do
exist, but they are extremely low." If the parties
are ready to meet half
way, Lukin believes that in all likelihood there may well
be an "agreement
for the sake of saving face."
Lukin stressed: "However, a Middle
East agreement will certainly be signed
in the near future, but this requires internal political
conditions."
Commenting on the viability of expanding the range of participants
in the
talks to include Libya, Syria and Russia, Lukin believes
that this is not
necessary: "We can broaden the range of participants
but we will not resolve
the problem in this way. Neither Russia, nor Europe can
exert a significant
influence on the situation" in the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict.
Based on Interfax reports.
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