MOSCOW - The Soviet Union would make private property
the basis of its economy and take steps to ensure
repayment of its foreign debt under a new economic
treaty being proposed by Grigory Yavlinsky, deputy
head of an interim committee currently running the
Soviet economy.
Mr. Yavlinsky's draft treaty amounts to the more
comprehensive -
although not the only - plan for rearranging the Soviet
economic system
following the failure of last month's coup and the
collapse of hard-line
communism.
It seeks to lay the foundations of a Soviet-style
common market, in
which participating individual republics would form
a customs and
banking union and cooperate closely on fiscal, monetary
and social
policy. The ruble would remain the unifying currency
but, under certain
conditions, republics could print their own money.
All participants
would agree not to hinder the free flow of goods and
services between
them, and to lift obstacles to private enterprise.
Political Pact's Counterpart
The proposed treaty amounts to the economic counterpart
of a political
pact - which parliament approved last week - between
the leaders of 10
republics and President Mikhail Gorbachev. However,
there is one crucial
difference: Republics that don't want to participate
in the new
political union could still join the proposed economic
agreement, either
as full or as associate members.
The 20-page text has been submitted to all 15 republics,
including the
now-independent Baltic states. It is likely to be
discussed in detail at
a meeting of the ruling State Council on Monday. Copies
have also been
sent to leading Western nations.
Mr. Yavlinsky - a 39-year-old former Russian government
official who has
emerged as the nation's pre-eminent economic thinker
- said he believes
that republics of the "former U.S.S.R."
will have to cooperate closely
on economic matters if they are to survive, let alone
pull themselves
out of the current slump.
"It's not a choice, but a necessity. This much
is clear to everyone,"
Mr. Yavlinsky said. He estimates that Soviet industrial
production has
fallen about 15% so far this year, while inflation
is now running at
about 2% to 3% each week.
Unlike some other plans Mr. Yavlinsky has drafted
- including one with
Harvard University - his proposed agreement doesn't
claim to resolve any
economic problems afflicting the Soviet Union. If
republican leaders
agree to sign the initial treaty, however, more specific
accords would
be worked out to establish and regulate a new banking
system, a regional
development fund and a national budget, among other
things.
Mr. Yavlinsky said he thinks the outline agreement
could be approved
within the next six weeks. The other, more detailed
agreements would
take between three months and a year.
Mr. Gorbachev apparently endorses at least parts
of the plan. On
Wednesday he told U.S. Secretary of State James Baker
that "urgent
short-term problems (in the economy) have to be dealt
with in a matter
of weeks." And the Soviet president stressed
that he hoped to press
ahead with making the ruble a convertible currency
in order to attract
foreign investment.
So far, republican leaders haven't responded formally
to Mr. Yavlinsky's
draft, which they were given on Friday. But officials
said the
all-important republic of Russia appeared to be supportive,
and others
have also sounded positive. Mr. Yavlinsky said the
question of Western
aid to the Soviet Union would only become relevant
once it was known
whether his treaty, or a similar arrangement, was
going to be signed.
Even so, Mr. Baker told reporters that the U.S. might
be willing to
provide humanitarian and technical assistance to the
U.S.S.R. even
before its reform intentions are clear.
Besides Mr. Yavlinsky's draft, at least two other
economic plans are
being circulated. Support for them is even harder
to determine. One plan
was drafted by Stanislav Shatalin, a respected economist
who worked with
Mr. Yavlinsky last year. Mr. Shatalin's plan proposes
an extremely loose
"convention" that would merely require participating
republics to
harmonize some of their economic regulations. For
example, they wouldn't
have to agree on a single monetary unit or tax policy.
The other proposal was drafted by the Russian Republic's
minister of
economics Yevgeny Saburov. Essentially, it would place
Russia in the
driver's seal of economic reform, requiring other
republics to follow
suit if they wanted to continue dealing with the giant
republic.
Mr. Yavlinsky's proposed treaty establishes a level
playing field for
all. In contrast with the other plans, it also gives
details of a
transitional period, in which participating republics
would work
together to scale back fixed prices and state production
orders - two
aspects of the centrally planned economy that continue
to dominate
Soviet life.
Particular care has been taken with the question
of Western investment
and Soviet foreign debt, which now totals almost $70
billion. Anxious
not to scare away potential sources of aid, Mr. Yavlinsky's
draft
"guarantees to fulfill all foreign trade obligations,"
and would set up
a special accord concerning foreign debt.
Until the ruble becomes convertible, participating
republics would agree
to maintain a centralized hard-currency fund to service
foreign debt.
Such a provision is likely to reassure Western bankers,
who have been
alarmed by talk that Soviet foreign debt might be
divided up among
republics with little or no guarantee of repayment.
Mr. Yavlinsky also
doesn't appear to support any move by the Soviet Union
to reschedule its
foreign debt. "I would prefer measures that wouldn't
damage the
interests of our creditors," he said.
|