| Russia's next parliament may have no independent
members at all.
United Russia didn't secure its constitutional majority in the Duma
solely due to its party members being elected. Some Duma members elected
as independents in single-mandate districts subsequently joined the United
Russia faction - and they have proved to be the faction's most recalcitrant
members, as the recent debate over social benefits legislation has shown.
This loophole seems likely to be closed by the next Duma elections: we
will elect the next Duma solely via party lists. Under the pretext of
"making some corrections" to electoral legislation, the Central
Electoral Commission (CEC) has actually launched fundamental reforms to
Russia's electoral system.
Background
The existing electoral system (225 Duma members elected via party lists,
and 225 elected in single-mandate districts) was introduced in 1993.
Throughout his time in office, Boris Yeltsin, who didn't have a truly
strong party under his control, sought to rewrite electoral laws. In 1995,
Yeltsin proposed that only a third of Duma members should be elected via
party lists; but the first Duma voted down that proposal, and subsequently
the Communists became the second Duma's largest faction.
The major innovation this time involves abandoning the combined electoral
system. The CEC's plans speak of "the possibility of electing all
Duma members according to the proportional voting system" - in other
words, solely via party lists.
Not many parties will be granted access to federal parliamentary elections.
To participate, they will need to have regional lists in 72 regions. Only
United Russia and the Communist Party (CPRF) are likely to achieve this
goal. Until now the parties have made their own decisions on how to compile
regional lists of candidates - depending on which regions are the strongest.
Of course, the CEC has promised to make sure that at least four parties
are represented in the Duma; in other words, even if some parties fail
to reach the threshold of 7% of the vote, the top four parties will still
make it into the Duma. The main problem will be finding four parties.
Forming electoral blocs will either be forbidden or made more difficult.
Only one of the revolutionary changes is clearly directed against United
Russia: the proposal that parties fielding candidates who have no intention
of actually serving in the Duma should lose the Duma seats won by those
candidates. The seats would be given to other parties. If that standard
had been applied in the December 2003 elections, it would have done substantial
damage to United Russia, as the party had 27 incumbent regional leaders
on its Duma lists.
But all the other innovations certainly tend to favour the Kremlin-backed
party - whatever it may be called by the next elections.
The strangest idea in the new proposals concerns independent candidates
in the regions. According to the CEC, they will be allowed to run for
election in competition with parties. If an
independent manages to get more votes than any party's entire regional
list (a task even the CEC calls "extremely difficult"), they
will win the Duma seat. When asked what an independent is
supposed to do in a Duma made up of several factions, where independents
would have to join a faction anyway, CEC member Olga Zastrozhnaya, responsible
for compiling the new proposals, only shrugged her shoulders: "Who
knows?"
Following the "public debate" scheduled for September and
October, these proposals to amend electoral laws will be submitted to
the Duma in November. If they are passed, the next Duma will be dominated
by United Russia again. But this time there won't be any Duma members
elected in single-mandate districts, nor any independent initiatives.
Arguments in favour of the CEC's proposals:
According to the CEC, most votes in single-mandate districts are wasted.
A candidate can win with 25% of the vote, for example - but the remaining
75%, cast for various other candidates, have no effect on representation
in the Duma.
Single-mandate district elections in the regions involve excessive use
of state administration resources and bribery. Following established habits,
most Duma members elected in single-mandate districts have subsequently
joined party factions, rather than representing the interests of their
district's voters alone.
Arguments against the CEC's proposals:
Many votes cast for party lists are also wasted: citizens who voted
for Yabloko, the Union of Right Forces, the Pensioner Party, or the Agrarian
Party are not represented in the present Duma.
The December 2003 elections demonstrated that state administration resources
are used to benefit pro-government parties more than anyone else.
Independent candidates, not supported by any parties, have been able to
run for parliament in single-mandate districts. But now they may lose
their constitutional right to run for public office.
Comments from CEC member Elena Dubrovina:
The resolution adopted by the CEC only opens the debate about reforms
to the electoral system, and reforms to the Duma, in effect. These changes
will primarily lead to Duma members being
entirely dependent on party authorities. Anyone who wants to run for the
Duma will have to be on a party list. Of course, there are also plans
to allow an alternative option - independent candidates challenging parties
- but personally, I find that hard to imagine.
See also:
State Duma elections
2003
State Duma Elections 2007
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