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Real reforms may not be launched until after the next elections
The meeting of the Duma Council on January 14 clarified that the Duma would not consider the electricity sector reform package in the second reading on January 22. No final date for discussion of the package was set. As First Deputy Speaker Lyubov Sliska explained, this is simply a technical issue. At the moment, the government is preparing amendments to one of the laws included in the package. When they are submitted to the Duma, the ordinary council will determine the date for the debate. This decision is likely to be made on January 21, Sliska said; which means that the second reading will take place in February.
The amendments developed by the Cabinet are related to the fact that the revised law on state regulation of rates for fuel and electricity came into force on January 14.
The expressions of concern regarding the need to observe the regulations may, however, merely be an excuse to postpone debate on the electricity reform draft laws - until all the elections are over.
In any case, the centrists, who take heed of the Kremlin'sopinion, have once again started saying that this is not the right time to reform Russian United Energy Systems (RAO UES). They believe that the consequences of such reforms could be felt during the run-up to the
presidential election campaign. For instance, Oleg Morozov said yesterday that this year more political arguments existed for rejecting the package of draft laws related to RAO UES than substantial reasons for passing this package..
One of the main arguments is that neither RAO UES itself, nor the Cabinet, nor even experts can guarantee the consequences of the reforms. That is, they cannot provide any guarantees regarding the impact on electricity tariffs - how they will increase, or how will this affect ordinary citizens and the economy. This may consequently lead to a totally unpredictable situation in Russia, as soon as next winter. Moreover, while at the moment the Duma majority does support approval of the draft laws for electricity reform, they would ensure the minimum possible majority. For this very reason, our sources say, neither Anatoli Chubais nor his supporters in the Cabinet want to risk insisting on a firm date for the second reading. If the package was voted down, the draft laws would have to be conceptually amended.
For instance, the YABLOKO faction, which doesn't support the Cabinet's draft laws on reforming RAO UES, aims to achieve this goal. However, reliable sources say that Chubais and his associates are counting on YABLOKO members as a safety margin. In any event, Andrei Sharonov, deputy economic development minister in charge of legislative support for the reforms, is stubbornly meeting YABLOKO members. He is persuading them to change their negative attitude toward the package, but promises nothing substantial in return. Therefore, he is not responsible for anything, as all decisions are taken at the highest level. YABLOKO members are not refusing to talk with Sharonov; they are offering their proposals on the reforms to the deputy minister. They hope that necessity may drive the executive branch to accept their views.
See also:
Energy Sector Reform
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