| During the plenary meeting of the Duma on Friday observers
were shown once again that the budget on the eve of the elections is more
than just a budget. For factions and deputy groups, public support of rejection
of the draft budget is a signal to their voters first of all. In short,
this is politics.
Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and his deputy, Finance Minister Alexei
Kudrin, fervently praised the draft 2004 budget to the Duma. The prime
minister even called the draft budget "the budget of social progress".
Yabloko deputy Mikhail Zadornov
disagreed. In his opinion, such references to the draft 2004 budget means
"disrespecting the audience". TheYabloko faction believes that
the draft 2004 budget is "anti-social". Zadornov concluded that
Yabloko was not prepared to vote for this draft budget.
However, the position of Grigory
Yavlinsky's party was the only surprise of the discussion. Not long
before Yabloko had promised to support it, even though the party had written
an alternative draft. At the last moment, the party apparently concluded
on the eve of the federal elections that a principled stand was more important
than the government's favour.
There were no more surprises that day. The centrists (Unity, Fatherland-United
Russia, People's Deputy, and most of Russian Regions) voted for this draft,
although Vladislav Reznik, who spoke on behalf of Unity on the eve of
the vote, even criticized the draft budget a little for insufficient funding
for the military.
Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov called the draft budget a document
that retained all the vices of the current state system. In his opinion,
"this is a budget of stagnation and delay." The Communists kept
their promise and unanimously voted against this draft. The Agrarian Group
and the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) also voted against the draft
budget. The speech of SPS leader Boris Nemtsov was most negative. He said
that the picture presented in reports made by the prime minister and his
deputy had nothing to do with reality. According to Nemtsov, 40 million
people in modern Russia are living on incomes that are smaller than $2
a day, which is the poverty line according to World Bank standards. The
finance minister disagreed with this estimate: in his opinion, the number
of poor in Russia is half that level, only 20 million people.
None of the budget parameters were amended. The draft stipulates 2.742
trillion roubles in revenues and 2.659 trillion roubles in expenditure.
The budget surplus will be 83.4 billion roubles. However, there will be
a surplus if average prices for Urals crude oil will be no lower than
$22 per barrel. If this figure in 2004 is $20 per barrel, the budget will
record neither a surplus nor a deficit. However, according to the government's
experts, this scenario is highly unlikely. Consequently the government
has a chance to achieve these figures. It may manage to secure 5% GDP
growth next year.
The 8-10% inflation forecast for 2004 raised the most debate. However,
no one proposed a concrete alternative to this figure.
The draft budget passed in the first reading with 246 votes in favour,
agains the required 226 votes. This result probably didn’t satisfy
the government, as Kudrin had called on the Duma to beat last year's record,
when 308 deputies supported the draft 2003 budget. However, it is quite
possible that the second reading scheduled for October 15 will go more
smoothly.
See also:
Budget
2004
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