The major event of substance at the forum was an announcement by some figures. Mark Urnov, head of the Ekspertiza Foundation and the National Political Forecasting Agency (NAPP), couldn't wait until Friday: he released some of the tastier morsels from the next issue of the NAPP bulletin called "Duma 2003: results of the election race." The forecast for the outcome of voting on December 7, based on analysis of the results of the latest national opinion polls by the leading polling agencies, look as follows:

Between 230 and 285 Duma seats will go to United Russia and all the parties, blocs, and single-mandate district candidates inclined to support it: Motherland (Rodina), the People's Party, the Agrarian Party, the Russia's Renaissance party and Party of Life alliance, and the LDPR (the NAPP has finally made the long- awaited decision to classify Zhirinovsky's party within the ranks of the pro-Kremlin party).

The Communist Party, along with pro-communist single-mandate district candidates, will win 105-135 seats. The democratic parties (YABLOKO and the Union of Right Forces) will win 40-55 seats between them.

But the main conclusion, according to the NAPP, is as follows: even though United Russia will obtain a majority in the new Duma (no one doubts that), its main goal - an absolute majority of 301 seats - will not be achieved, even if all independent single-mandate Duma members (predicted to number around 25) join the winning party. Detailed results of this study will be made public today, around midday.

The second memorable event at the forum was a tradition (something similar has taken place at all the recent Open Forum meetings). Duma member Vladimir Ryzhkov and a number of experts once again called on YABLOKO and the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) to unite, saying that with their endless conflict, these parties are "paving the way for authoritarianism." They expressed the opinion (this was nothing new either) that if the two parties merge, the democrats could get 16-20% of the vote in elections. In response, the well-wishers received the meeting's most emotional speech.

Galina Mikhalyova, head of YABLOKO's analytical center, couldn't restrain herself: "It is strange to be forced to tell this audience, for the 225th time, that the SPS and YABLOKO are different parties, with different voters and different positions.

We have cooperated, and are cooperating, with the SPS as closely as we can: in the Duma and in the districts where our candidates are running for the Duma."

According to Mikhalyova, YABLOKO cannot unite with Anatoly Chubais primarily because the reforms he is carrying out in housing and utilities and the electricity sector disadvantage ordinary citizens and merely benefit monopolists. Yavlinsky's supporters are categorically opposed to this development.

After listing all the SPS's sins against YABLOKO v from the "YABLOKO without Yavlinsky" campaign to Chubais's unification ultimatum - Mikhalyova presented a "list of attacks" clearly meant for the SPS: between September 3 and November 24, a total of 203 newspaper articles discrediting YABLOKO have been published.

Mikhalyova said angrily: "Let's fight the authoritarian regime together - but how can you merge with someone who keeps elbowing you in the ribs, or worse?"

"No need for that, no need for worse," said Mark Urnov, interrupting this potentially explosive topic.

Mikhalyova replied by saying what some members of the audience considered healthy and constructive, while others (like Gleb Pavlovsky) found it amusing. She said: "All forces of civil society should unite. But that doesn't mean we have to merge into an embrace - let it be a coalition. As long as all of us haven't been mown down by a scythe, there is still a chance. There is a very big hope that thinking voters will understand how much they are being deceived." This little speech may be considered YABLOKO's official position.

See also:

State Duma elections 2003

YABLOKO and SPS

Izvestia, November 28, 2003