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On 28 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin made substantial
changes in the
Russian government, replacing the interior and defense ministers
-- among other
cabinet officials -- with close personal associates. Putin said
those moves would
advance plans for military reform and what he called the "demilitarization"
of
Russian public life.
Analysts say the government reshuffle further consolidates Putin's
grip on power, promoting people closely associated with Putin
while downgrading officials associated with former President Boris
Yeltsin. But at the same time they point out that, in contrast
to Atomic Energy Minister Yevgenii Adamov, who resigned in the
wake of a conflict-of-interest scandal, dismissed former Defense
Minister Igor Sergeev and former Interior Minister Vladimir Rushailo
have been reassigned to still prestigious, although less influential,
positions. Moreover, those analysts are uncertain whether Putin's
new appointments will translate into significant changes in government
policies.
Putin himself emphasized that the two top people at the Defense
Ministry, as well as the head of the Interior Ministry, will now
be civilians, a move he termed "a step toward the demilitarization
of Russian society." But although new Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov is now a civilian, he had previously served for 20 years
in the Soviet and Russian security services - - where he was a
colleague of Putin -- rising to the rank of general in the KGB.
Ivanov is seen as Putin's most-trusted ally, precisely because
of bonds formed during their joint KGB work.
Michael McFaul, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Carnegie
Endowment, notes that Rushailo's replacement as interior minister
by Boris Gryzlov -- who heads the pro-Kremlin Unity faction in
the Duma -- is also important.
"It's a further consolidation of Putin's power over ministries
where he previously did not have his people in place. Both the
interior appointment and the appointments at the ministry of defense
-- these are now loyalists to Mr. Putin. Rushailo, especially,
was a holdover from [businessman Boris] Berezovsky's clan, so
that's a big change and important in terms of Putin's consolidation,"
McFaul explained.
Speaking to RFE/RL late on 28 March, opposition Duma deputy
(Yabloko) Sergei Ivanenko pointed to another sign that Putin is
succeeding in imposing his own team. Ivanenko noted that despite
the major changes, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who is regarded
as a Yeltsin-man, was left completely out of the picture. Ivanenko
said: "In essence, this is a government of Putin, who is
in reality the government's head. He directly controls all of
his ministers and in this sense the fact Kasyanov was not mentioned
once today is very revealing."
But will the change in government personnel mean a change in
policy? Putin clearly implied sweeping changes. He said on 28
March that the reshuffle was prompted by the situation in the
North Caucasus and the need to get on with a long-awaited military
reform. Yet all the officials responsible for waging Russia's
latest war in Chechnya are still in place, albeit in different
posts.
Moscow-based defense analyst Francoise Deauce sees some hope
that new Defense Minister Ivanov can shake up the military. "He
is someone who is outside the armed forces, who has a lot of authority
-- notably from his [earlier] posts inside the security services
-- and so maybe he can impose decisions on the army that it might
see as going against its interests. In other words, he may be
capable of fighting the corporatism of the military institutions
that until now was largely responsible for braking successive
attempts at military reforms since 1991."
Stephan De Spiegeleire, a senior policy analyst at the RAND
Europe policy think tank, is more pessimistic. He said the equation
is very simple: until the war in Chechnya is ended, no significant
reforms can be expected, no matter what appointments Putin makes
from his inner circle.
New Defense Minister Ivanov indicated on 28 March that there
would be no "revolution" in military reforms, adding
that any changes would be gradual. Military reforms such as streamlining
and reorganizing the army, strict reduction of personnel, and
the introduction of a professional, rather than conscript, army
have been announced for the past decade as indispensable to cut
costs and adapt to new realities. But they have never been implemented.
Analysts further note that the reshuffling of a few key cabinet
members will not in itself guarantee meaningful reforms. Divisive
factions that existed in the upper echelons of the Russian government
and the military before Putin came to power still exist. Analyst
De Spiegeleire argues that Putin may have a harder time imposing
his authority on the machinery of government than his predecessors,
as he still lacks their political power base.
"The infighting that's going on -- that has been going
on for a very long time -- hasn't stopped just because Putin came
in. There may be some different interest
groups that are involved right now but the main fact that -- also
within the military -- there are some clans that keep fighting
is not going to change by the mere appointment of Ivanov. Unlike
previous leaders of Russia, or the Soviet Union, who grew up as
first [Communist Party] secretaries and had a huge cadre of people
around them, Putin doesn't have it," he commented.
Sophie Lambroschini is a Moscow-based RFE/RL correspondent and
Jeremy Bransten is an RFE/RL senior editor based in Prague.
See also:
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty at http://www.rferl.org
Copyright (c) 2000. RFE/RL, Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
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