|
There is something of a lull in the process of negotiations between
the Union of Right-Wing Forces and Yabloko over creating a coalition
with a single list of candidates for the next election. However,
last weekend, the right reminded the public that the process is
still underway. Actually, the talks took an unexpected turn this
time. Boris Nemtsov, leader of the Union of Right-Wing Forces
faction, made the sensational statement that the two organisations
might nominate a single candidate for president in 2004.
Nemtsov added, somewhat piously, that "it would be the height
of stupidity and a crime against the state if the Union of Right-Wing
Forces and Yabloko were to fieldseparate candidates." Nemtsov's
far-reaching and ambitious plans, seem rather odd, when set against
the background of the petty quarrels over leadership within the
Union of Right-Wing Forces. Firstly, we may recall the process
of the unification of the Union of Right-Wing Forces and Yabloko.
The process has been underway for some time already with nothing
to show (compared to the same process with Fatherland and Unity).
Last autumn, Yavlinsky's deputy in the Duma, Sergei Ivanenko,
denied all speculation about problems encountered during the unification
as groundless, as work on the mechanism of compiling a single
list of candidates was almost complete. But in winter Grigory
Yavlinsky himself had refused to discuss the mechanism. He had
merely said that the time was not right. Our sources in both organisations
are becoming markedly more sceptical about the very possibility
of unification. They inevitably refer to the ambitions of Yabloko's
leaders.
Viewed in this background, Nemtsov's words do appear strange.
Speaking on behalf of the Union of Right-Wing Forces, Nemtsov
all but hinted that Yavlinsky of Yabloko would become the candidate.
Nemtsov said he had voted for Yavlinsky in 2000. For 2004, however,
Nemtsov suggested the use of primaries - somewhat out of sync
with the idea of a single candidate. Given the difficulties of
electing a leader for its political council, the Union of Right-Wing
Forces is unlikely to come up with a single presidential candidate
without considerable trouble, scandals and mutual accusations.
Moreover, some analysts even doubt that matters will ever reach
the point of primaries - simply because the right will hardly
want to nominate one such politician at all for the lack of choice.
Some observers also expect Nemtsov's idea about Yavlinsky to encounter
resistance from Sergei Kiryenko, Anatoly Chubais, Irina Khakamada,
Yegor Gaidar, and regional branches of the Union of Right-Wing
Forces. In this situation, Nemtsov's words may be taken as a kind
of "agreement between two leaders", whose objective
is rather vague.
Perhaps Nemtsov is just waiting for a response from Yabloko -
something like a proposal from Yavlinsky that Nemtsov ought to
be the candidate. Nemtsov would find this more than simply convenient.
The congress where Union of Right-Wing Forces is to be transformed
into a party is coming up soon; there are problems with the leadership
of the future party; and Nemtsov needs the image of a unifier
of all democratic forces in Russia. But will these democratic
forces, which are mostly loyal to the regime, want the eternal
oppositionist Yavlinsky as their leader?
|
