Liberal economist Grigory Yavlinsky, long the odd
man out in Russian politics, suddenly seems to be
picking up support among media and financial elites
as well as in the country's regions.
In the past month, Yavlinsky has won a public endorsement
from one of Russia's most high-profile media tycoons
and from a powerful regional governor, and has seen
his party dominate St. Petersburg local district elections.
The developments are significant since media access,
campaign financing and support from regional leaders
are the main factors that win elections.
Earlier this month, financial and media mogul Vladimir
Gusinsky - founder of the MOST-Group media and financial
empire including MOST-Bank; the television station
NTV; the Ekho-Moskvy radio station; the national daily
newspaper Segodnya and the weekly newsmagazine Itogi
- pledged to back Yavlinsky in the 1999 parliamentary
elections "to the maximum."
"Everything that I can do, I will. That is not
a secret," said Gusinsky.
Gusinsky's support, together with the rest of Russia's
financial and media elite, was crucial to President
Boris Yeltsin's come-from-behind victory in the 1996
elections. Yavlinsky has already declared his intention
to run in the next presidential elections, due to
take place in the year 2000.
Yeltsin's 1996 media support was organized by First
Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais, then Yeltsin's
campaign manager. But since then, the once unified
media-financial oligarchy has split and descended
into an ugly public feud after Uneximbank won a privatization
auction for the massive telecommunications giant Svyazinvest.
Most notably, Gusinsky and Russia's other media mogul
Boris Berezovsky - who controls ORT Russian Public
Television - have broken with Chubais, who they consider
a stooge of Uneximbank chairman Vladimir Potanin.
Gusinsky said Chubais had compromised himself as
a government official by lobbying for the interests
of Uneximbank.
"For me, Anatoly Borisovich is not a deputy
prime minister; he is rather one of my competitors.
He represents one of my competitors - Uneximbank,"
Gusinsky said. "That is wrong. I believe that
no representative of the government should represent
the interests of one or another enterprise, be that
a bank or an industrial group."
But analysts say that neither Gusinsky nor any of
Russia's other tycoons are prepared to hand the presidency
to Yavlinsky, but instead are planning to support
Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.
"This is a consolation prize," said Andrei
Piontkovsky, director of the Center for Strategic
Studies, a Moscow-based political think-tank. "Both
Gusinsky and Berezovsky have already decided that
they will support Chernomyrdin for president in 2000
but they want to keep Yavlinsky in the game as the
leader of a democratic opposition."
Piontkovsky said that barring any changes to the
current election laws, the next Duma should have two
big factions: Yabloko and the Communists, with both
Vladimir Zhirinovsky's nationalist Liberal Democratic
Party and Chernomyrdin's pro-government Our Home Is
Russia falling from the picture.
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