A day after the government claimed a
major triumph
in convincing Western banks to
write off $10.6 billion in Soviet-era debt,
authoritative voices ranging from former
finance ministers to the Yabloko Party came out
firmly against the deal.
Critics argued either that the write-off
could have
been larger — perhaps even $20
billion instead of $10 billion, or that the actual
details of the deal are more onerous
than has been made clear, or that Russia would be
better off simply repaying the
entire amount it borrowed, instead of seeking debt
relief.
"Talk of this partial debt write-off
as a victory is
simply hilarious," said Sergei Ivanenko,
deputy head of Yabloko's Duma faction.
Ivanenko was not alone. Former Russian
Cabinet
ministers Mikhail Zadornov, Boris
Fyodorov and Alexander Shokhin — all of them at one
time or another men who
handled the nation's finances — have now questioned
the deal. Perhaps tellingly, the
Russian stock market at first rallied on the news
Monday, then fizzled.
Russia owes more than $145 billion to
Western banks
and governments and to
multinational lending agencies like the World Bank
and the International Monetary
Fund. About half of that debt was racked up by the
Soviet Union, and Moscow intends
to repay it.
Hundreds of Western banks who lent to
the Soviet
Union are banded together into the
so-called London Club; until last week, they had
been seeking reimbursement of
$31.8 billion.
On Friday, however, First Deputy Prime
Minister
Mikhail Kasyanov and the London
Club agreed to restructure the debts — writing off
$10.6 billion, and postponing the
heftiest repayments on the remaining $21.2 billion
until 2008.
Acting President Vladimir Putin promptly
announced
himself pleased with Kasyanov,
an assessment endorsed by other officials and
politicians and by foreign
markets-watchers.
"This agreement with
the London Club helps
Russia's battered image
of an insolvent
borrower," said Andrei
Kokoshkin, the chief
economist of
Fatherland, the political vehicle of
Moscow Mayor Yury
Luzhkov.
Charles Blitzer, who
used to head the Moscow
delegation of the World
Bank and now is the
London-based head of
research for the
investment house Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette, was
also complimentary. "I think
that this is a very favorable deal for Russia,"
Blitzer said in a telephone interview.
But for Fyodorov — a former finance minister
who has
for years warned against
extravagant borrowing from the West, yet also
insisted that everything borrowed also
be repaid — Kasyanov's deal was a cause to grieve.
"Everyone around is trumpeting about
a triumph,
congratulating each other, shouting
hysterically about this brilliant victory of Russian
economic diplomacy and of Mikhail
Kasyanov. But I am just sad," Fyodorov wrote in
Tuesday's issue of Segodnya.
"Because now the entire world knows for certain:
Russia is an African country.
"For a pretender to status in the
'G-8' [group of
the leading industrialized nations] it is
simply shameful, in my view, to beg for debt
forgiveness."
Fyodorov asked why it was that — given
the export
boom now enjoyed by industry
thanks to the weak ruble and to the soaring world
oil price — Russia couldn't simply
pay off these debts.
"Russia could certainly service
its entire sovereign
debt and also have a decent
[federal] budget, if it could significantly reduce
theft, corruption and capital flight,"
Fyodorov wrote.
That same argument has been put forward
by the
well-known liberal economist Andrei
Illarionov. "The problem of paying off the state
debt does not exist," Illarionov said, in
an interview Monday with the Vedomosti business
daily.
Illarionov calculated that all of Russia's
sovereign
debts, both Soviet and otherwise,
together amount to about 5.3 percent of national
GDP. He compared that with debts
taken out by other nations as a percentage of GDP,
including Bulgaria at 9 percent,
Kazakhstan at 10.5 percent and Nicaragua at 14.5
percent.
Vedomosti quoted a finance ministry official
as
questioning Illarionov's math, and drily
adding that this was simply "a striking example of
how any conclusion can be
supported if you carefully select the facts."
In Segodnya, Fyodorov also suggested
that Russia
might also eventually decline to
pay these debts too.
That was a view echoed by Zadornov, who
was finance
minister during the August
1998 meltdown. Zadornov said he expected Kasyanov's
deal would, in some distant
future, also have to be improved upon.
"Looking at the conditions of the
agreement, I
conclude that this is not the final
restructuring," Zadornov told the Ekho Moskvy radio
station.
Zadornov's colleagues in Yabloko noted,
in remarks
to Interfax, that Zadornov had in
his day sought a 70 percent write-off of London Club
debt. Kasyanov brought back a
roughly 35 percent write-off, but according to
Yabloko's Ivanenko, even a 50 percent
write-off would have been "a step back."
Soviet debt has been securitized into
two major
financial instruments — PRINs, the
rolled-over principle, and IANs, the rolled-over
interest. Then there are also promised
payments missed since August 1998.
Kasyanov and the London Club tentatively
agreed to
write off 36.5 percent of $22.2
billion in PRINs and 33 percent of $6.8 billion in
IANs. The remainder is to be
restructured into Eurobonds at interest rates from 5
percent to 7.5 percent.
They also agreed to swap the post-August
1998
payments of $2.8 billion into 10-year
bonds at 8.25 percent interest.
News that PRINs and IANs would indeed
be honored in
some form pushed up their
value. PRINs and IANs trading on Friday at $19.6 and
$22.1 respectively were by
Tuesday at $24 and $25.25.
Duma Deputy and former Cabinet minister
Shokhin and
Communist leader Gennady
Zyuganov are among others who have argued that
Russia could have cajoled more
out of the London Club.
But as Zyuganov has noted, it is difficult
to judge
the deal because the negotiation
process — which will effect Russia for generations —
has been non-transparent.
On Monday, Zyuganov complained that the
government
should have consulted with the
State Duma on the deal. But in fact, Zyuganov's
Communists in the last Duma helped
bury a Yabloko legislative proposal to mandate just
that.
Viktor Gitin, a debt expert with the
Yabloko Party,
had suggested an amendment to the
budget law that would have required State Duma
approval for any London Club
agreement. The Communists voted it down.